What Experiment Should I Run?

“What should I even test first?” is the right question — and the answer is a decision tree, not a list of best practices. Tell the tool your goal, where your funnel leaks, your traffic, and your research, and it recommends the specific experiment to run next, and why.

The right next experiment depends on where your funnel leaks, how much traffic you have, and whether you have research. This recommender maps those to a specific test — the lever to change, the funnel step to target, and the test type that fits your traffic — and, crucially, tells you when to do research instead of testing. It encodes the triage RGM runs on a new account; runs entirely in your browser.

The calculator

What Experiment Should I Run? inputs and result

Your recommendation
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Walkthrough

How to use this tool

  1. Answer the four questions.Your goal, where the funnel leaks most, your traffic level, and the research you already have.
  2. Read the recommended experiment.The tool maps your situation to a specific test — what to test, where, and which test type fits your traffic.
  3. If it says “research first,” do that.Testing without research wastes scarce traffic on low-win-rate guesses. The biggest unlock is often not a test at all — it’s a week of analytics, recordings, and a survey.
  4. Right-size and design the test.Use the linked sample-size and duration calculators, write a structured hypothesis, and pre-commit one primary metric with guardrails.
  5. Export the plan.Copy a share link, download the CSV, or print a one-page PDF for your test brief.

From the desk

RGM Expert Says

Real Growth Matters — Paid social practiceHow we use this tool with clients

The question we hear most from teams new to CRO isn’t ‘how do I test’ — it’s ‘what should I even test first?’ The honest answer is a decision tree, not a list of best practices, because the right next experiment depends entirely on where your funnel leaks, how much traffic you have, and whether you’ve done any research. This tool encodes the same triage we run on a new account.

Two answers surprise people. First, if you have no research, the recommendation is not a test — it’s a week of analytics, session recordings, and a survey, because testing blind produces the ~1-in-3 win rate that makes teams quit. Second, if your traffic is low, we steer you toward bold, high-leverage swings (value proposition, full-page redesigns) rather than tweaks, because small traffic can only ever detect large effects — a 2% button test is mathematically doomed on low volume.

The throughline is leverage: test the step with the most traffic and the biggest drop-off, change the argument (value prop, clarity, friction, proof) rather than the decoration, and match the test type to your traffic. Get those three right and your first experiments actually move something — which is what earns the program the credibility to keep going.

The math

How it works

The recommender applies the prioritization logic from the RGM CRO program:

  • Research gate — no research → research first; win rate is decided before the test.
  • Leverage — test the high-traffic, high-drop-off funnel step you flagged.
  • The lever — map the leak to what actually moves behavior: entry → value proposition; consideration → clarity & proof; conversion → friction; retention → lifecycle (not a page test).
  • Test type by traffic — low → bold A/B swings; medium → standard A/B (A/B/n for distinct concepts); high → A/B/n, multivariate, or bandits for short-lived calls.

It’s a heuristic starting point, not a substitute for your own research. Runs entirely in your browser. Pair it with the sample-size and duration calculators.

Why it matters

Most programs test the wrong thing first

The single most common reason a young CRO program stalls is starting in the wrong place: tweaking a low-traffic checkout step while 80% of visitors bounce off the landing page, or testing button colors when the value proposition is unclear. Every test you run is several you didn’t — so the first question isn’t ‘what’s a good test idea,’ it’s ‘where is the leverage, and am I ready to test at all?’

This tool exists to force that triage. By tying the recommendation to your funnel leak, traffic, and research, it pushes you toward the high-leverage step and the behavior-changing lever, and it refuses to recommend a test when you have no research to base one on. That single discipline — research before testing, leverage before tweaks — is most of the gap between a program that compounds and one that spins.

Use it as a starting map, then sharpen with your own data. The recommendation tells you the category of experiment that fits your situation; your analytics and qualitative research turn that into the specific hypothesis worth its slot in the backlog.

Benchmarks

The lever for each funnel leak

Match the change to where the leak is — and change the argument, not the decoration.

Leak locationHighest-leverage leverAvoid
Entry (landing/ads)Value proposition & message matchButton colors, hero swaps
Consideration (product/content)Clarity, info hierarchy, social proofCosmetic restyling
Conversion (cart/checkout/form)Friction: fields, steps, trustAdding more upsells
Retention (post-purchase)Onboarding & lifecycle experimentsOne-off page A/B tests
Source: RGM CRO program; see the fundamentals module.

Voices worth trusting

What operators say

The hard part is testing the right things — having the right treatment — not setting up the tests.
Founder, CXL
If you have no research, your best next move usually isn’t a test — it’s a week of analytics, recordings, and a survey.
RGM
Experimentation practice

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FAQ

Common questions

What experiment should I run first?
It depends on where your funnel leaks most, your traffic, and whether you have research. This tool maps those to a specific recommendation — but the universal rule is: do research first if you have none, then test the highest-traffic, highest-drop-off step by changing the argument (value prop, clarity, friction, proof), not the decoration.
Should I test if I have no research yet?
Usually no. Testing blind produces the low win rate that makes teams give up. Spend a week on analytics, session recordings, and a survey first; that research is what drives win rate, so it’s the higher-leverage move.
What should I test on a low-traffic site?
Bold, high-leverage swings — value proposition, messaging, full-page redesigns — not small tweaks. Low traffic can only detect large effects, so a button-color test is mathematically doomed; make the change big enough to move the needle detectably.
How do I decide between an A/B test and a multivariate or bandit?
By traffic and goal. Low/medium traffic: A/B (A/B/n for distinct concepts). High traffic: A/B/n or multivariate. Use a bandit only for short-lived, exploit-now decisions where minimizing regret matters more than clean learning.
Where should I test in the funnel?
The step with the most traffic and the biggest drop-off — that’s where a percentage improvement is worth the most. Optimizing a step few visitors reach is a common misallocation of scarce testing capacity.
Does this tool replace real research?
No. It’s a heuristic starting point that tells you the category of experiment that fits your situation. Your own analytics and qualitative research turn that into the specific, high-confidence hypothesis worth running.

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