SMS Program Planner
Enter your subscribers, send frequency, click and conversion rates, order value, and opt-out rate. The planner forecasts SMS revenue and net profit while modeling list attrition — and tells you the cadence that earns the most without burning the list you spent years building.
SMS is the highest-engagement channel marketers own, and the easiest to ruin by over-sending. This planner forecasts your monthly revenue and net profit from subscribers, send frequency, click and conversion rates, and order value — then models the cost no dashboard shows: list attrition. Every extra text lifts revenue today and raises opt-outs, shortening the list’s half-life. The tool finds the cadence where you earn the most over the life of the list, not just this month.
SMS Program Planner inputs and result
| Metric | Value |
|---|
How to use this calculator
- Enter your subscriber countUse your current opted-in SMS list size. The planner models attrition as a share of this each month, so an accurate starting number keeps the half-life forecast honest.
- Set send frequencyEnter marketing texts per subscriber per month. This is the lever the whole tool turns on: it lifts revenue and opt-outs at the same time, so the sweet spot is rarely the maximum.
- Add click and conversion ratesEnter your click rate and click-to-buy rate. SMS click rates run high relative to email; multiplied together they decide how many sends become orders.
- Add order value and opt-out rateOrder value scales revenue; opt-out rate per text drives attrition. Together with frequency they set how fast the list shrinks — the half-life the tool reports.
- Read the cadence verdict and exportGreen means a sustainable cadence with room to test. Amber means you are just over the line. Red means you are burning the list — the tool shows the cadence ceiling this list can sustain.
RGM Expert Says
SMS is the most powerful owned channel most brands have and the one they damage fastest. The trap is that over-sending looks like a win on this month’s dashboard — more texts, more clicks, more revenue — while quietly raising opt-outs and shrinking the asset that produced the revenue. This planner exists to make that hidden cost visible by reporting the list’s half-life alongside the revenue.
The number we point clients to is months-to-lose-half. A list with a nine-month half-life is not a marketing channel; it is a countdown. Revenue that depends on constantly refilling a list you are burning is a treadmill, not a flywheel. When we drop a brand from an aggressive cadence to a sustainable one, this month’s revenue dips slightly and lifetime revenue climbs sharply, because the list survives to earn again.
Our rule is to find the cadence ceiling and stay just under it. There is a send frequency above which attrition outruns the extra revenue, and it depends on your opt-out rate, which depends on how relevant and well-segmented your sends are. The fastest way to earn the right to text more is not to text more — it is to lower the opt-out rate through segmentation, then let the ceiling rise on its own. The cost assumption here is a standard per-text rate; swap in your carrier pricing for a precise net-profit line.
How it works
The planner runs revenue from the send funnel and attrition from the opt-out rate, then converts the monthly opt-out into a list half-life so the cost of over-sending is visible.
- Texts/month — the central lever; lifts revenue and opt-outs together.
- Opt-out per text — the unsubscribe rate that, with frequency, sets the list half-life.
- List half-life — months until attrition halves the list at the current cadence.
- Sustainable ceiling — the rough send frequency above which attrition outruns the gain.
Worked example: 20,000 subscribers, 6 texts/month, 20% click, 10% click-to-buy, $60 order value yields $144,000/month revenue; at a 1.2% opt-out per text that is 7.2% monthly attrition and a 9.3-month half-life, with a sustainable ceiling near 5 texts/month. Net profit uses a $0.03/text cost; swap in your carrier pricing. Figures are RGM analysis from your inputs and standard SMS benchmarks; treat them as directional.
Why cadence is the whole game in SMS
SMS rewards engagement and punishes abuse harder than any other owned channel. Open and click rates run far above email, which makes the temptation to send more almost irresistible — and the consequence of doing so almost invisible until the list is gone. The opt-out you trigger today does not just cost one unsubscribe; it removes a subscriber from every future send, which is why attrition compounds and revenue forecasts that ignore it are fantasy.
The right metric is lifetime, not monthly. A cadence that maximizes this month’s revenue while halving the list in nine months almost always loses to a gentler cadence that keeps the list alive for years. The planner makes that trade explicit by reporting the half-life next to the revenue, so the decision is made with both numbers in view instead of just the flattering one.
The deepest lever is not frequency but relevance. The sustainable ceiling rises as the opt-out rate falls, and the opt-out rate falls with better segmentation, timing, and offers. Brands that earn the right to text more do it by being worth reading, not by pushing send harder. Lower the opt-out rate first, and the cadence you can sustainably run climbs on its own.
Reading the cadence verdict
These bands are RGM planning analysis from typical SMS economics. Your real click, conversion, and opt-out rates will move the answer — replace the defaults with your platform numbers for a precise plan.
| Monthly attrition | Read | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Under the ceiling | Sustainable cadence | Room to test more carefully |
| Just over the line | Slightly too aggressive | Ease toward the ceiling |
| Above ~9%/month | Burning the list | Cut frequency; fix relevance |
| Half-life under ~9 mo | Countdown, not a channel | Lower opt-out via segmentation |
What practitioners say about owned audiences
An owned audience is an asset only as long as you do not exhaust it; cadence is the difference between a flywheel and a treadmill.
Engagement channels reward restraint; the brands that win text and email less than they could, not more.